Scientific Presentations
LabTalks@DCD
Department of Digital and Computational Demography
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Rostock, Germany, June 18, 2025
11:00 AM: Talk with Roman Hoffmann - To Move or Stay? Migration Intentions Amid Conflict and Climate Change
the Auditorium - 057
Abstract
Many conflict-affected regions worldwide simultaneously face severe climate change impacts, exacerbating insecurities, vulnerability, and competition over scarce resources. The interplay between climate extremes and conflict creates a compound risk, disrupting livelihoods and well-being while influencing human migration in complex ways. Depending on the intensity and co-occurrence of these shocks, mobility may be either spurred or suppressed, potentially trapping populations in place. Despite the significance of overlapping stressors, research on their joint impact on mobility and immobility remains limited. To address this gap, we examine how the combined exposure to conflict and climatic shocks shapes migration intentions using Gallup World Poll data from 140 countries (2009-2019, n=1,054,708). The individual migration data was combined with information on drought and conflict occurrences in the subnational (GADM level 1) regions of residence of the survey respondents (Figure 1 and Figure 2 below). We employ gridded drought data from the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration (SPEI) database (1900-2023) and conflict data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), providing information on fatalities from different types of conflicts (1989 to 2023). Integrating these georeferenced data sources and using fixed effects panel models, we analyze how the exposure to compound stressors in the regions in the past 1 and 12 months prior to the Gallup data collection have affected migration intentions. We find that both drought and conflict positively affect migration intentions with effects becoming more pronounced when shocks coincide. Migration responses to compound stressors vary across countries with effects being strongest in low and middle-income countries in the Middle East and Africa. Changes in the intentions to migrate are primarily driven by a lowered confidence in the economic future of a country. Our findings furthermore highlight the role of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics with differential mobility responses by age, sex, and education. These results underscore the need for a nuanced understanding of climate-conflict interactions and their relevance for migration and provide insights for policies aimed at addressing overlapping risks in affected regions.
About
Roman Hoffmann leads the Migration and Sustainable Development Research Group in the IIASA Population and Just Societies Program. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Vienna, Austria, and degrees in sociology and economics from the University of Munich, Germany. In his applied research, he studies the relationship between climate change and population dynamics and the resulting implications for sustainable development. In particular, his work focuses on investigating the underlying causes, patterns, and consequences of different types of migration, with an emphasis on the links between climate change and human mobility. He is also interested in climate change mitigation and sustainability, including drivers of environmental concern, pro-environmental behaviors, and support for climate action.
Register to Take Part
You would like to attend the Online Seminar Talk? You are very welcome. Please register by writing an e-mail to office-zagheni@demogr.mpg.de.
Online Seminar Talk, July, 23rd from 11:00 a.m. to 12 p.m. (Rostock time)