Scientific Presentations

LabTalks@­SocialDemography

Department Social Demography
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Rostock, Germany, May 06, 2025

1:00 PM: Talk with Chiara Micheletti - Multistate distributions and morbidity compression: advancing the debate on ageing and health

Abstract

Traditional approaches to assess whether morbidity is compressing or expanding over time typically compare life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HLE). Changes in the HLE/LE ratio are used to support hypotheses of morbidity compression or expansion. The aim of this paper is to revisit the long-standing ‘compression vs expansion of morbidity’ debate taking advantage of recently illustrated multistate modelling techniques. Such methods allow deriving distributions estimating the number of years individuals have accumulated in good and in less-than-good health throughout their lives. Building on this approach, we propose the ‘healthy year curves’, a new tool measuring the average number of years lived in good health among those who died at a certain age. We provide an empirical application using Danish data for women and men separately, from 2008 to 2018.

1:45 PM: Talk with Kelsey Wright - Cradles in the Storm: How Everyday Uncertainty Shapes Fertility Choices