Hybrid Format
Talk@MPIDR Lina Tobler
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Rostock, Germany, November 13, 2024
11:00 AM: Lina Tobler (University of Cologne) - Workers, jobs and the way they are matched: A decomposition of US labor market trends in educational mismatch
Abstract: Past research has shown increasing overeducation in the US labor market. Given the costs of educational mismatch for workers and employers, it is crucial to understand its underlying causes. Trends in educational (mis)matches are driven by concurrent shifts in the supply of and demand for workers of a certain education as well as changes in the non-random allocation process. While previous research has considered these aspects with regard to the emergence of (mis)match on the micro-level, less is known about their relative impact on macro-level trends in educational (mis)match. Using American Community Survey data, we adopt a macro-level perspective to first describe recent trends in overeducation, undereducation and adequate matches between 2003 and 2017. Second, we decompose these trends into two components: changes in supply and demand (the opportunity structure) and trends in the non-random allocation process (the matching pattern). This approach allows us to assess the relative impact of each structural driver. Our findings indicate an increase in overeducation, a decrease in undereducation, and fluctuating trends in adequate matches. These trends are largely attributable to changes in the opportunity structure, while changes in matching patterns contribute to a lesser extent. Similar findings emerge from additional analyses on within-gender and within-race differences. Policies that incentivize the creation of jobs requiring higher educational levels could help better align educational supply with labor market demand.
Bio: Lina Tobler is a junior research assistant and doctoral student at the Institute of Sociology and Social Psychology at the University of Cologne (Chair of Prof. Marita Jacob). She holds a Master’s Degree from the University of Cologne and a Bachelor’s degree from the University of Mannheim. Her research interests include labour markets, gender inequality and policy evaluation. She previously worked on research questions related to labour market implications of the COVID-19 crisis. In her research, she uses cross-sectional as well as longitudinal data and mostly quasi-experimental designs. Together with Julia Leesch, she currently researches trends in educational (mis)match applying decomposition techniques.