HYBRID EVENT

Uncertainty of Fertility Intentions in the United States: Levels, Trends, and Patterns

Luca Badolato (Ohio State University)
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), July 12, 2023

Abstract

Uncertainty is a pervasive attribute of modern societies, in which individuals have to navigate the surrounding uncertainty through constant strategic life planning and risk assessment, which have become of central importance. Population scientists, following these insights, are critically embedding uncertainty in fertility research, at the macro, micro, and measurement levels. In this talk, with a focus on the United States, I integrate these complementary areas of research and analyze a key dimension, how individuals assess the certainty of their fertility intentions, that is, how much individuals who intend more children are certain they will actually have other children, and how much those who do not intend more children are certain they will not have other children. We estimate (i) levels and trends of the uncertainty of fertility intentions in the United States, (ii) analyze which factors are associated with such uncertainty, and whether the uncertainty of positive fertility intentions is associated with the reported quantum and timing of fertility intentions. I conclude the talk by highlighting key areas for future research on fertility and uncertainty, broadly defined.

About

Luca Badolato is a PhD student at the Ohio State University, Department of Sociology. He has received his BSc degree in Economics and Management, from the University of Milan, Italy and his MSc degree in Economic and Social Sciences from Bocconi University, Italy. His research focuses on fertility and life course approach and uses various quantitative methods as well as machine learning.