October 14, 2024 | News | Award
Jan M. Hoem Paper Award for Angela Carollo
Angela Carollo is a research scientist and statistical analyst at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and a member of the Laboratory of Fertility and Well-Being. She received the Jan M. Hoem Paper Award for her paper “Event history analysis with two time scales. An application to transitions out of cohabitation”, authored by Angela together with Hein Putter, Paul H.C. Eilers and Jutta Gampe. The award was presented to Angela Carollo at the MPIDR Autumn Festival in October.
Angela Carollo won the 2024 Jan Hoem Paper Award. © MPIDR/Schulz
Iñaki Permanyer (CED Barcelona) said in his laudation on the publication: “The paper makes a very interesting and useful methodological contribution to the field of event history analysis by extending the well-known ‘hazard functions’ to those settings where the timing of events is modeled through two time scales. Examples of events that should be modeled through two time scales abound. For instance, when modeling the timing of the first child birth within marriage, the age of the mother and the duration of the marriage are fundamental time scales that interact with each other in many possible ways. Or, as done in the paper, when studying transitions from unmarried cohabitation to marriage or separation, two fundamental time scales are the ages of individuals and the duration of such cohabitation. Importantly, rather than relying on basic extensions of ‘single time-scale models’ – as is common in the literature – the authors model the two time scales simultaneously. To do so, they model bivariate hazard rates through bidimensional P-Splines, an extremely useful, elegant and flexible tool with many applications but which has been rarely used in demographic studies. To illustrate the usefulness of their approach, the authors use data from the German Family Panel to explain how ‘age’ and ‘cohabitation duration’ non-trivially interact to shape the transitions from cohabitation to marriage or separation. Importantly, the results are produced through the ‘TwoTimeScales’ R-package, which the authors have made openly accessible. This is extremely useful for other scholars aiming to apply similar modeling ideas to many other research areas. Overall, the paper presents an extremely useful, elegant and powerful method that has the potential to broaden our understanding in many areas of demography and the social sciences.”
About the Jan Hoem Paper Award
It was created in 2020 to recognize young scientists at MPIDR for a paper that exemplifies quality, innovation, originality, and scientific achievement, as exemplified by the work of Jan M. Hoem.
Carollo, A.; Putter, H.; Eilers, P. H. C.; Gampe, J.:
SocArXiv papers. unpublished. (2023)
