Book Chapter

A DEVS model for demographic microsimulation

Zinn, S., Gampe, J., Himmelspach, J., Uhrmacher, A. M.
In: Wainer, G. (Ed.): Proceedings of the 2010 Spring Simulation Multiconference: Symposium on Theory of Modeling & Simulation - DEVS Integrative M&S Symposium (DEVS 2010); Book 4 of 9, 87–94
Simulation series 42,1
Red Hook, NY, Curran (2010)


Microsimulation is increasingly applied in demography to project the development of populations. A stochastic model is being introduced that describes individual life courses on a continuous time base. Life courses are determined by sequences of demographic events. We show how this demographic multi-state projection model can be specified as an atomic model in DEVS. Thereby, strengths but also limitations of this approach are revealed. The limitations are addressed by exploiting a DEVS variant that supports variable structures, i.e.,DYNPDEVS, and by modeling individuals as atomic models and the population as a network model. An example projection of a synthetical population based on the population of Italy shows the plausibility and the feasibility of the developed model.
Keywords: microsimulation
The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock is one of the leading demographic research centers in the world. It's part of the Max Planck Society, the internationally renowned German research society.