Future population and education trends: scenarios by regions to 2030
Goujon, A., Kohler, I., Lutz, W.
In: Lutz, W., Prieto, L., Sanderson, W. C. (Eds.): Population, development, and environment on the Yucatan peninsula: From the ancient Maya to 2030, 141–172
IIASA Publications RR-00-14
Vienna, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (2000)
This chapter proposes several possible paths of population and educational attain-ment for the Yucat´ an peninsula up to 2030. For this purpose, the population of each socioecological region (SER), as defined in Chapter 2, was projected along three main scenarios reflecting the potential future of the region: a stagnation scenario, a rapid development scenario, and a central scenario. "When defining the projection assumptions, special emphasis was placed on three parameters: education, migration, and rural/urban differences. The first focus derives from the premise that education may play an important role in shaping the region’s demographic features. Education is seen as a factor of heterogeneity that can influence many variables of population change, such as fertility decline and the momentum of population growth. For example, the evidence of a negative relation-ship between education and fertility on the Yucat´ an peninsula is overwhelming. The focus on migration reflects the population flows that have occurred in the region over the past 25 years. The population has grown rapidly, largely as a result of migratory flows into the tourist–urban region (Canc´ un) and northern block-fault basin region (see Chapter 3). The peninsula’s economy is largely based on tourism, and this sector has the potential to further increase its share in the region’s economy (see Chapter 8). Another challenge lies in the division between the traditional rural Maya cul-ture and the modern urban Western culture, a division that is the source of many demographic contrasts within the peninsula. Most of the rural parts of the peninsula are depressed areas that experience outward migration and higher rates of natural increase, lower life expectancies, and lower levels of educational attainment with higher rates of illiteracy than the urban parts of the peninsula." (INTRODUCTION)