Old and new perspectives on mortality forecasting

Bengtsson, T., Keilman, N. (Eds.)
TitleDemographic research monographs 15
341 pages. Cham, Springer (2019)
Open Access


This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements.  It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives.  The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.

Keywords: demography, forecasts, life expectancy, longevity, models, mortality

Full Text

Front Matter

Tommy Bengtsson, Nico Keilman, Juha M. Alho, Kaare Christensen, Edward Palmer, James W. Vaupel

Part I

Front Matter

Life Expectancy Is Taking Center Place in Modern National Pension Schemes – A New Challenge for the Art of Projecting Mortality
Edward Palmer

Experiences from Forecasting Mortality in Finland
Juha M. Alho

Mortality Projections in Norway
Helge Brunborg

Mortality Assumptions for Sweden. The 2000–2050 Population Projection
Hans Lundström

Forecasting Life Expectancy: The SCOPE Approach
James W. Vaupel

Mortality Forecasts. Comments on How to Improve Existing Models – An Epidemiologist’s Perspective
Kaare Christensen

The Need for Looking Far Back in Time When Predicting Future Mortality Trends
Tommy Bengtsson

Part II

Front Matter

Erroneous Population Forecasts
Nico Keilman

Remarks on the Use of Probabilities in Demography and Forecasting
Juha M. Alho

An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands
Maarten Alders, Joop de Beer

Stochastic Forecasts of Mortality, Population and Pension Systems
Shripad Tuljapurkar

Part III

Front Matter

The Linear Rise in the Number of Our Days
Jim Oeppen, James W. Vaupel

Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends
Ronald Lee

Forecasting Life Expectancy: A Statistical Look at Model Choice and Use of Auxiliary Series
Juha M. Alho

Life Expectancy Convergence Among Nations Since 1820: Separating the Effects of Technology and Income
Jim Oeppen

Linear Increase in Life Expectancy: Past and Present
Tommy Bengtsson

Part IV

Front Matter

How Useful Are the Causes of Death When Extrapolating Mortality Trends. An Update
Graziella Caselli, Jacques Vallin, Marco Marsili

Forecasting Life Expectancy and Mortality in Sweden – Some Comments on Methodological Problems and Potential Approaches
Måns Rosén

How Analysis of Mortality by Cause of Death Is Currently Influencing UK Forecasts
Richard Willets

Part V

Front Matter

A Life Course Perspective to the Modern Secular Mortality Decline and Socioeconomic Differences in Morbidity and Mortality in Sweden
Martin Lindström, George Davey Smith

Early Life Events and Later Life Health: Twin and Famine Studies
Kaare Christensen

The Month of Birth: Evidence for Declining but Persistent Cohort Effects in Lifespan
Gabriele Doblhammer

Early-Life Conditions and Old-Age Mortality in a Comparative Perspective: Nineteenth Century Sweden and Belgium
Tommy Bengtsson, George Alter

The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock is one of the leading demographic research centers in the world. It's part of the Max Planck Society, the internationally renowned German research society.