MPIDR Working Paper

Premarital conception and divorce risk in Russia in light of the GGS data

Abstract

The paper provides an analysis of divorce risk in first marital unions in Russia, with a major focus on the impact of premarital conception on the stability of subsequent marriage. A number of other predictors are also discussed, including age at first marriage, parity and age of the youngest child, parental divorce, place of residence, religion group and calendar period. The analysis is based on data from the Russian Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) carried out in 2004 and applies event history techniques. The results show that marriages induced by pregnancy run a higher divorce risk compared to those contracted without anticipation of childbirth.