Goodness of fit in models for mortality data
Statistics and econometrics series 09: working paper 08-39
Madrid, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Departamento de Estadística (2008)
Mortality data on an aggregate level are characterized by very large sample sizes. For this reason, uninformative outcomes are evident in common Goodness-of-Fit measures. In this paper we propose a new measure that allows comparison of different mortality models even for large sample sizes. Particularly, we develop a measure which uses a null model specifically designed for mortality data. Several simulation studies and actual applications will demonstrate the performances of this new measure with special emphasis on demographic models and P-spline approach.
Keywords: mortality, smoothing