Laboratory

Population Dynamics and Sustainable Well-Being

At a Glance Projects Publications Team

Project

Forecasting Population-Level Mortality

Ugofilippo Basellini; in Collaboration with Carlo Giovanni Camarda (French National Institute for Demographic Studies, Paris, France)

This project generates novel insights into the analysis and forecast of population-level human mortality by introducing new statistical methods based on age-at-death distributions and the decomposition of the mortality age-pattern.  Detailed Description

Observed and Forecast Death Rates for Swiss Men

Actual, estimated and forecast death rates by Three-Component smooth Lee-Carter model over age (left) and time (right) on a log scale for Swiss males. Unlike in the original Lee-Carter method, mortality forecasts over ages are smooth, and rates of mortality improvement over time are not constant. © Camarda and Basellini (2021)

Publications

Leger, A.-E.; Rizzi, S.; Basellini, U.:

Modelling and short-term forecasting of seasonal mortality

arXiv e-prints 2502.10787. unpublished. (2025)    

Basellini, U.; Camarda, C. G.; Booth, H.:

Thirty years on: a review of the Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality

International Journal of Forecasting 39:3, 1033–1049. (2023)    

Basellini, U.; Camarda, C. G.:

A three-component approach to model and forecast age-at-death distributions

In: Developments in demographic forecasting, 105–129. Cham: Springer International Publishing. (2020)    

Bergeron Boucher, M.-P.; Kjærgaard, S.; Pascariu, M. D.; Aburto, J. M.; Alvarez Martinez, J. A.; Basellini, U.; Rizzi, S.; Vaupel, J. W.:

Alternative forecasts of Danish life expectancy

In: Developments in demographic forecasting, 131–151. Cham: Springer International Publishing. (2020)    

Pascariu, M. D.; Basellini, U.; Aburto, J. M.; Canudas-Romo, V.:

The linear link: deriving age-specific death rates from life expectancy

Risks 8:4, 109.1–109.18. (2020)