Population Dynamics and Sustainable Well-Being

At a Glance Projects Publications Team


Analyzing and Monitoring the Early Spread of COVID-19: A Demographic Perspective

Ugofilippo Basellini, Diego Alburez-Gutierrez, Emilio Zagheni; in Collaboration with Marco Bonetti (Bocconi University, Milan, Italy), Carlo Giovanni Camarda (French National Institute for Demographic Studies, Paris, France)

We analyze and monitor the initial spread of COVID-19 and propose new methods to estimate excess mortality. The goal is to provide researchers and policy-makers alike with insights into and real-time information on the evolution of the pandemic.  Detailed Description

Covid-19 in Italy

Maps of Italy showing, for each region, the magnitude of newly reported SARS-CoV-2 infections (left) and their rates of change (right) on October 27, 2020. © Bonetti and Basellini (2021)

Covid-19 mortality rates in Italian regions by epidemic onset

Start date of the epidemic by region (left-hand panel) and smoothed Covid-19 log mortality rates over time (right-hand panels): Italy, late February to mid-July 2020. Regions with earlier epidemic outbreaks show on average higher levels of Covid-19 mortality than regions with later outbreaks. © Basellini and Camarda (2022)

Research Keywords:

Aging, Mortality and Longevity, Statistics and Mathematics

Region keywords:

Europe, Guatemala, Italy, United Kingdom


Basellini, U.; Camarda, C. G.:
Population Studies 76:1, 99–118. (2022)    
Basellini, U.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Del Fava, E.; Perrotta, D.; Bonetti, M.; Camarda, C. G.; Zagheni, E.:
SSM-Population Health 14:100799, 1–18. (2021)    
Bonetti, M.; Basellini, U.:
Demographic Research 44:12, 307–332. (2021)    
Martinez-Folgar, K.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Paniagua-Avila, A.; Ramirez-Zea, M.; Bilal, U.:
American Journal of Public Health 111:10, 1839–1846. (2021)    
The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock is one of the leading demographic research centers in the world. It's part of the Max Planck Society, the internationally renowned German research society.