Population Dynamics and Sustainable Well-Being

At a Glance Projects Publications Team


Forecasting Population-Level Mortality

Ugofilippo Basellini; in Collaboration with Carlo Giovanni Camarda (French National Institute for Demographic Studies, Paris, France)

This project generates novel insights into the analysis and forecast of population-level human mortality by introducing new statistical methods based on age-at-death distributions and the decomposition of the mortality age-pattern.  Detailed Description

Observed and Forecast Death Rates for Swiss Men

Actual, estimated and forecast death rates by Three-Component smooth Lee-Carter model over age (left) and time (right) on a log scale for Swiss males. Unlike in the original Lee-Carter method, mortality forecasts over ages are smooth, and rates of mortality improvement over time are not constant. © Camarda and Basellini (2021)

Research Keywords:

Aging, Mortality and Longevity, Projections and Forecasting, Statistics and Mathematics

Region keywords:

Europe, Japan, USA


Basellini, U.; Camarda, C. G.; Booth, H.:
International Journal of Forecasting 39:3, 1033–1049. (2023)    
Camarda, C. G.; Basellini, U.:
European Journal of Population 37:3, 569–602. (2021)
Basellini, U.; Camarda, C. G.:
In: Developments in demographic forecasting, 105–129. Cham: Springer International Publishing. (2020)    
Basellini, U.; Kjærgaard, S.; Camarda, C. G.:
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 91, 129–143. (2020)
Bergeron Boucher, M.-P.; Kjærgaard, S.; Pascariu, M. D.; Aburto, J. M.; Alvarez Martinez, J. A.; Basellini, U.; Rizzi, S.; Vaupel, J. W.:
In: Developments in demographic forecasting, 131–151. Cham: Springer International Publishing. (2020)    
Pascariu, M. D.; Basellini, U.; Aburto, J. M.; Canudas-Romo, V.:
Risks 8:4, 109.1–109.18. (2020)    
The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock is one of the leading demographic research centers in the world. It's part of the Max Planck Society, the internationally renowned German research society.