Beitrag in einem Sammelband

A DEVS model for demographic microsimulation

Zinn, S., Gampe, J., Himmelspach, J., Uhrmacher, A. M.
In: Wainer, G. (Ed.): Proceedings of the 2010 Spring Simulation Multiconference: Symposium on Theory of Modeling & Simulation - DEVS Integrative M&S Symposium (DEVS 2010); Book 4 of 9, 87–94
Simulation series 42,1
Red Hook, NY, Curran (2010)


Microsimulation is increasingly applied in demography to project the development of populations. A stochastic model is being introduced that describes individual life courses on a continuous time base. Life courses are determined by sequences of demographic events. We show how this demographic multi-state projection model can be specified as an atomic model in DEVS. Thereby, strengths but also limitations of this approach are revealed. The limitations are addressed by exploiting a DEVS variant that supports variable structures, i.e.,DYNPDEVS, and by modeling individuals as atomic models and the population as a network model. An example projection of a synthetical population based on the population of Italy shows the plausibility and the feasibility of the developed model.
Schlagwörter: microsimulation
Das Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung (MPIDR) in Rostock ist eines der international führenden Zentren für Bevölkerungswissenschaft. Es gehört zur Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, einer der weltweit renommiertesten Forschungsgemeinschaften.