Beitrag in einem Sammelband

Mortality models incorporating theoretical concepts of ageing

Yashin, A. I.
In: Forecasting mortality in developed countries, 261–280
European studies of population 9
Dordrecht, Kluwer (2001)


Among the basic attributes of ageing, heterogeneity, homeostasis and stochasticty were studied extensively in the second half of the 20th century. A selection of mortality models developed on the basis of these attributes are reviewed in this chapter, including older as well more recent concepts. The older models of vitality, fixed heterogeneity and debilitation, being unsuitable for practical use, proved to be appropriate for testing simple hypotheses about the importance of certain factors for survival. In contrast, the more recent models of changing frailty, and in particular the stochastic process models of mortality, allow an explplicit description of the physiological mechanisms of ageing. These models also appeared to be successful in complex applications. Irrespective of when they were devised, the models of evolutionary theories of ageing are less certain in their conclusions than any other models mentioned above. However, all models discussed here have contributed to improvements in our understanding of age patterns of mortality. Some of them (i.e. changing frailty and stochastic process models) can be safely recommended as a tool for both the justification and the prediction of mortality changes in the future. (AUTHOR)
Das Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung (MPIDR) in Rostock ist eines der international führenden Zentren für Bevölkerungswissenschaft. Es gehört zur Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, einer der weltweit renommiertesten Forschungsgemeinschaften.