Beitrag in einem Sammelband

The decision to emigrate: a simulation model based on the theory of planned behaviour

Willekens, F. J.
In: Grow, A., van Bavel, J. (Eds.): Agent-based modelling in population studies: concepts, methods, and applications, 257–299
The Springer series on demographic methods and population analysis 41
Cham, Springer (2017)


The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) is one of the most widely used theories of behaviour. It was developed by Ajzen as an extension of Fishbein’s theory of reasoned action (Fishbein and Ajzen, Predicting and changing behaviour. Psychology Press, New York, 2010). The theory states that intentions predict behaviour and intentions are shaped by beliefs. In the paper, the theory of planned behaviour is extended to a process theory and that theory is used to specify a micro-simulation model of emigration decision-making. The validity of the model is assessed by determining how well the model predicts stylized facts about international migration.

Schlagwörter: decision making, international migration, microsimulation
Das Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung (MPIDR) in Rostock ist eines der international führenden Zentren für Bevölkerungswissenschaft. Es gehört zur Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, einer der weltweit renommiertesten Forschungsgemeinschaften.