MPIDR Working Paper

Temperature and fertility: evidence from Spanish register data

Conte Keivabu, R., Cozzani, M., Wilde, J.
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2023-021, 31 pages.
Rostock, Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung (Mai 2023)
Open Access

Abstract

In this paper, we combine administrative data for continental Spain from 2010 to 2018 with meteorological data to identify the effect of temperature on fertility. We demonstrate that warm (25-30°C) and hot days (>30°C) decrease total fertility rate (TFR) in Spain, and that the estimated decrease is higher than the effects estimated in previous literature for other countries. Moreover, we show that locations with a colder climate are more vulnerable to the impact of heat. Our results suggest that the global impact of climate change on population dynamics may be understated, especially without adaptation and mitigation measures, and that temperature increases may exacerbate the socio-economic consequences of low fertility such as population ageing.

Das Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung (MPIDR) in Rostock ist eines der international führenden Zentren für Bevölkerungswissenschaft. Es gehört zur Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, einer der weltweit renommiertesten Forschungsgemeinschaften.