MPIDR Working Paper

Tempo-adjusted period parity progression ratios: Assessing the implications of delayed childbearing for cohort fertility in Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain

Kohler, H.-P., Ortega, J. A.
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2001-035, 50 pages.
Rostock, Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung (November 2001)
This paper has been published in Demographic Research 6(7)
OpenAccess

Abstract

In this paper we apply tempo-adjusted period parity progression ratios (Kohler and Ortega 2001) to Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain. These countries represent three distinct demographic patterns in contemporary Europe and are of particular interest for demographers. The goal of our analyses is to (a) describe past fertility trends in these countries in terms of synthetic cohort and (b) project the level and distribution of completed fertility in cohorts who have not finished childbearing. Our analyses suggest that the most recent period fertility patterns in these countries do not imply substantial increases in childlessness even in younger cohorts. Moreover, if these patterns prevail in the future, young cohorts would reach completed fertility levels between 1.5--1.75.
Das Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung (MPIDR) in Rostock ist eines der international führenden Zentren für Bevölkerungswissenschaft. Es gehört zur Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, einer der weltweit renommiertesten Forschungsgemeinschaften.