Rural exodus and fertility at the time of industrialization
IRES discussion papers 2016/20
Louvain-la-Neuve, Catholic University of Louvain (2016)
We propose a uniﬁed model of economic growth where people decide not only about fertility and education but also whether or not to migrate to the city or alternatively to the countryside. Using the simulated method of moments and an original set of Danish data, we calibrate our model to evaluate the relative contributions of the rural exodus and mortality reductions to economic growth and the fertility transition. We ﬁnd, in line with Galor (2005), that the reduction of infant mortality has not been a major driver of the Danish economic take-oﬀ while the rural exodus, complementing technological progress, has been a workhorse of the economic and demographic revolution of Denmark.