Operativnaja demografičeskaja informacija o naselenii: vozmožnosti i organičenija
Short-term population statistics: possibilities and limitations
Voprosy Statistiki, 72–82 (2016)
The article considers possibilities and limitations for the use of short-term population statistics provided by Rosstat in demographic analysis. Methodological conclusions are illustrated by data for the first half of 2015. Following the statement that current data is basically a set of data on the number of vital events registered by civil registrar offices during a calendar month, the authors believe that current information can not be analyzed without proper understanding of its nature and qualities, their comparison with final data on demographic processes in longer term retrospective. However, even when all these conditions are complied with, short-term data can be used merely for establishing preliminary hypotheses and tentative conclusions.
The authors elaborate on why reliable diagnostics of problems relating to population replacement and public health can not be based upon current data. Specifically, comparison of the number of vital events for the two spaced-apart by one calendar year periods can not be considered as a reliable tool for monitoring demographic dynamics.