The rate by which mortality increase with age is the same for those who experienced chronic disease as for the general population

Ebeling, M., Rau, R., Håkan, M., Ahlbom, A., Modig, K.
Age and Ageing, 50:5, 1633–1640 (2021)
Open Access


Background: Mortality doubles approximately every 6–7 years during adulthood. This exponential increase in death risk with chronological age is the population-level manifestation of ageing, and often referred to as the rate-of-ageing.
Objective: We explore whether the onset of severe chronic disease alters the rate-of-ageing.
Methods: Using Swedish register data covering the entire population of the birth cohorts 1927–30, we analyse whether being diagnosed with myocardial infarction, diabetes or cancer results in a deviation of the rate-of-ageing from those of the total population. We also quantify the long-term mortality effects of these diseases, using ages with equivalent mortality levels for those with disease and the total population.
Results: None of the diseases revealed a sustained effect on the rate-of-ageing. After an initial switch upwards in the level of mortality, the rate-of-ageing returned to the same pace as for the total population. The time it takes for the rate to return depends on the disease. The long-term effects of diabetes and myocardial infarction amount to mortality levels that are equivalent to those aged 5–7 years older in the total population. For cancer, the level of mortality returns to that of the total population. 
Conclusion: Our results suggest an underlying process of ageing that causes mortality to increase at a set pace, with every year older we become. This process is not affected by disease history. The persistence of the rate-of-ageing motivates a critical discussion of what role disease prevention can play in altering the progression of ageing.

Schlagwörter: Schweden, acute diseases, ageing, chronic diseases, mortality
Das Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung (MPIDR) in Rostock ist eines der international führenden Zentren für Bevölkerungswissenschaft. Es gehört zur Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, einer der weltweit renommiertesten Forschungsgemeinschaften.