March 11, 2025 | News | SPOTLIGHT

Level of Education and Place of Residence Influence Fertility Rates

[SPOTLIGHT]

Improving population forecasts by taking regional and educational differences into account

A recent MPIDR study examined differences in fertility between urban and rural areas and the influence of women's educational levels in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Higher levels of education generally lead to lower fertility, although fertility rates are higher in rural areas than in urban areas, regardless of women's education. Taking these factors together in multidimensional population projection model could lead to more accurate population projections and the development of more effective fertility and health policies.

Fertility in Africa, Asia and Latin America is also influenced by where people live. In all these regions there are differences between urban and rural areas. © poco_bw – stock.adobe.com

Whether and when people have children can depend on many different factors. In a recent study, researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC)and the University of Shanghai have examined the difference in fertility patterns based on where women live—urban or rural areas—and their level of education. Saroja Adhikari (MPIDR), Wolfgang Lutz (WIC) and Samir KC (WIC) studied this in Asia, Africa and Latin America.

‘How do education and place of residence – rural or urban – interact to influence fertility patterns? By answering this question, we wanted to find out whether considering urban-rural differences in population projection models – in addition to education – can improve the accuracy of future population projections rather than accounting for only one of these factors,’ explains Saroja Adhikari, corresponding author of the study. For their analysis, the researchers used data from the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). A total of 202 data sets from 63 countries were evaluated. These data were collected between 1986 to 2020 from Africa, Asia and Latina America.

Predicted number of births per woman (aged 15-24, parity 0-1) within five years. © MPIDR

Adhikari and her colleagues found that higher levels of education are associated with lower fertility in both rural and urban areas of Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. In all regions studied, they found higher fertility in rural than in urban areas – even among women with similar levels of education. ‘We conclude that place of residence also influences fertility independently of a woman's level of education. The combined effect of education and place of residence on fertility is significantly stronger in Africa and Latin America than in Asia. So, taking these two factors into account in the future can make population projections even more accurate,’ says the scientist.

More accurate population projections at the subnational level can be crucial to better understand climate change adaptation and mitigation in different regions. ’Currently, climate researchers rely on two separate projections, one that incorporates education at the national level and another that accounts for urbanization at the subnational level. By examining the combined effects of education and rural or urban residence on fertility, our study provides the first insights into whether integrating both dimensions together into population projections would improve their accuracy,’ says Adhikari.

Fertility rates are much higher in rural than in urban areas, especially among women with low levels of education. It is therefore important to improve access to family planning and education in rural areas. Considering the urban-rural and education differentials will help to develop much more effective fertility and health policies and more accurate population projections. ‘Our findings can serve as a basis for policymakers to allocate development efforts and resources in a balanced way, to support the development of infrastructure and climate strategies that consider both urban growth and the needs of rural areas’.