March 25, 2004 | Press Release

Did the association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries really change its sign?

The OECD countries are on the threshold of pronounced population aging owing to declining fertility since the 1960s. According to many demographers, and in particular population economists, there is a strong connection between falling fertility and increasing female participation in the labor market. This is because female employment and child-rearing are in competition with each other. Until the early 1980s, the association between fertility rates and female labor-force participation rates in the OECD countries was a negative one. Recent empirical studies, however, reveal the existence of a reverse pattern: a positive correlation between fertility and female employment.

Recently, Dr. Tomas Kögel, who is a research scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, published an article entitled "Did the association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries really change its sign?" in the "Journal of Population Economics" 17(1). He shows that the positive correlation does not arise from a change in the relationship between the two variables. The diagram illustrates the empirical results of the study. The 1965-1995 fertility rates of Italy and Sweden are shown on the y-axis of the line graph, and the x-axis displays the female labor-force participation rates for the 1965-1995 period. From the graph it can be seen that in 1965 Sweden (with a high female labor-force participation rate: 54%) had a lower fertility rate (2.4) than Italy (2.7; with a low rate of female labor-force participation of 34.6%). In 1995, the reverse applied: With a female labor-force participation still at high levels (75.9%), Sweden had a higher fertility rate (1.7) than Italy (1.2), where the rate continued to be low (43.1%).

Over the time period, the female labor-force participation rate increased and the fertility rate dropped in both countries. It can therefore be said that over time the correlation between both variables remains to be a negative one for the two countries. Nevertheless, over time the increase in the female labor-force participation rate in Sweden was associated with a slighter decrease in the fertility rate than in Italy. The results therefore suggest that the compatibility between child-rearing and female employment was greater in Sweden than in Italy.

Diagram: Fertility rate (Geburtenrate) and Female labor-force participation rate (Frauenerwerbsquote) in Sweden and Italy

About the MPIDR

The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock investigates the structure and dynamics of populations. The Institute’s researchers explore issues of political relevance, such as demographic change, aging, fertility, and the redistribution of work over the life course, as well as digitization and the use of new data sources for the estimation of migration flows. The MPIDR is one of the largest demographic research bodies in Europe and is a worldwide leader in the study of populations. The Institute is part of the Max Planck Society, the internationally renowned German research organization.

Original publication

Kögel, T.: Did the association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries really change its sign? Journal of Population Economics 17(2004)1, 45-65.