MPIDR Working Paper
Cohort postponement and period measures
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2010-015, 17 pages.
Rostock, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (February 2010)
We introduce a new class of models in which demographic behavior such as fertility is postponed by differing amounts depending only on cohort membership. We show how this model fits into a general framework of period and cohort postponement that includes the existing models in the literature, notably those of Bongaarts and Feeney and Kohler and Philipov. The cohort-based model shows the effects of cohort shifts on period fertility measures and provides an accompanying tempo-adjusted measure of period total fertility in the absence of observed shifts. Simulation reveals that when postponement is governed by cohorts, the cohort-based indicator outperforms the Bongaarts and Feeney model that is now in widespread use. The cohort-based model is applied to fertility in several modern populations.