Demographic Data

At a Glance Projects Publications Team


Effects of Short-Term Events on Subnational Mortality Trends in Europe (Dissertation)

Isabella Marinetti, Dmitri A. Jdanov, Fanny Janssen (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute / University of Groningen, Netherlands)

Detailed Description

The emergence of epidemics, seasonal excess mortality, and economic crises have challenged trends in increasing longevity in several European countries. The relevant research so far mainly focused on the impact of short-term events at the national level. We thus lack information on the differential impacts of these events within a country. This particularly affects countries where regions make health care decisions and economic and political policies.

Project research focuses on analyzing spatial mortality differentials. It zeros in on short-term events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, economic crises, seasonal extreme temperatures, and the influence of short-term risk factors on trends in inequality. The aim is to understand the main contributors to mortality changes among age groups and causes of death during these short-term events.

The project draws from subnational mortality data from national statistical offices. These data are being thoroughly analyzed using formal demographic methods including (i) novel methodologies to estimate expected mortality to accurately identify the impact of short-term events on mortality levels, (ii) methods of decomposition analysis to assess the contribution of different age groups and causes of death, and (iii) time series analysis to assess the link between short-term events and mortality trends.

Research Keywords:

Aging, Mortality and Longevity, Health Care, Public Health, Medicine, and Epidemiology

Region keywords:



Marinetti, I.; Jdanov, D. A.; Grigoriev, P.; Klüsener, S.; Janssen, F.:
PLOS One 18:12, e0295763–e0295763. (2023)    
The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock is one of the leading demographic research centers in the world. It's part of the Max Planck Society, the internationally renowned German research society.