Research Group

Labor Demography

At a Glance Projects Publications Team

Project

Innovations in Multistate Modeling

Conducted by Mikko Myrskylä; Christian Dudel, Daniel Christoph Schneider

Detailed Description

Understanding how life-course trajectories unfold is a complex task. For instance, (dis)advantages early in life can lead to (dis)advantages later in life, and they can thus accumulate over time. Multistate models provide a useful toolbox to handle this complexity and to gain a better understanding of life-course dynamics. In this project, we assess existing methods and develop extensions and new approaches, with a focus on discrete-time multistate models. Statistical properties of these models are studied mathematically and through simulations. Specific topics include variance estimation, the application of Markov Chains with rewards, and causal inference in multistate models. We also provide code and open-source software that implements our methods.

Publications

Schneider, D. C.:

Statistical inference for discrete-time multistate models: asymptotic covariance matrices, partial age ranges, and group contrasts

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2023-041. (2023)    

Schneider, D. C.; Myrskylä, M.:

Statistical inference for discrete-time multistate models: extensions to Markov Chains with rewards

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2023-042. (2023)    

Schneider, D. C.; Myrskylä, M.; van Raalte, A. A.:

Flexible transition timing in discrete-time multistate life tables using Markov chains with rewards

Population Studies, 1–15. (2023)    

Dudel, C.; Schneider, D. C.:

How bad could it be? Worst-case bounds on bias in multistate models due to unobserved transitions

Sociological Methods and Research 52:4, 1816–1837. (2021)    

Schneider, D. C.; Myrskylä, M.; van Raalte, A. A.:

Flexible transition timing in discrete-time multistate life tables using Markov chains with rewards

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2021-002. (2021)    

Dudel, C.; Myrskylä, M.:

Estimating the number and length of episodes in disability using a Markov chain approach

Population Health Metrics 18:15, 1–9. (2020)    

Dudel, C.:

Expanding the Markov chain tool box: distributions of occupation times and waiting times

Sociological Methods and Research, 1–28. (2018)    

Dudel, C.:

Expanding the Markov chain tool box: distributions of occupation times and waiting times

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2017-017. (2017)