Statistische Demografie

Auf einen Blick Projekte Publikationen Team


Multiple Time Scales in Survival and Event History Models (Dissertation)

Angela Carollo, Jutta Gampe, Hein Putter (Leiden University, Medical Center, Niederlande); in Zusammenarbeit mit Paul H.C. Eilers (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Niederlande)

Ausführliche Beschreibung

In survival analysis and event history models, the time to one or several events is of interest. The occurrence of an event is described by its hazard, which varies along one main time scale. In demography, this time scale is usually the age of the individual.

However, in some applications multiple time scales are relevant for the occurrence of an event. This situation is common in many demographic processes that evolve with age but where the time since the experience of another event is also of great importance. Fertility rates by age of the mother and time since marriage are typical examples.

If an additional time scale is relevant, it is usually modeled as a time-varying covariate that changes its value at some discrete time points. A more direct approach is to treat the additional time scale as a second dimension of the hazard function. This is a more symmetric treatment of the problem and avoids the need to choose one main time scale over the other(s).

This project will develop survival models and multistate models with several time scales. The basic model assumes a smooth bivariate hazard function, which is estimated by two-dimensional P-splines. The model will be extended by incorporating covariates in a proportional hazards framework. Efficient computation is required to manage the dimensionality of the model.

The approach will then be used to answer substantial questions in family demography and population health.


Statistik und Mathematik


Carollo, A.; Putter, H.; Eilers, P. H. C.; Gampe, J.:
In: Proceedings of the 36th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling (IWSM), Trieste, Italy, 18–22 July 2022, 123–128. Trieste: EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste. (2022)    
Carollo, A.; Gampe, J.:
In: Proceedings of the 34th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Guimarães, Portugal, July 7-12, 2019, volume II, 96–100. Statistical Modelling Society. (2020)
Carollo, A.; Putter, H.; Eilers, P. H. C.; Gampe, J.:
In: Proceedings of the 35th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling: July 20-24, 2020, Bilbao, Basque Country, Spain, 31–34. Bilbao: Servicio Editorial de la Universidad del País Vasco / Euskal Herriko Unibertsitateko Argitalpen Zerbitzua. (2020)    
Das Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung (MPIDR) in Rostock ist eines der international führenden Zentren für Bevölkerungswissenschaft. Es gehört zur Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, einer der weltweit renommiertesten Forschungsgemeinschaften.