Laboratory

Demographic Data

At a Glance Projects Publications Team

Research Area

Mortality and Survival

The development of world-leading demographic data resources is a core activity of the Data Laboratory. Currently, the Laboratory is responsible for two scientific databases on mortality and longevity: the Human Mortality Database (HMD) and the Human Life-Table Database. Both databases are collaborative projects with researchers from the Department of Demography at the University of California at Berkeley (USA) and the French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED, France).

The researchers at the Data Laboratory have actively contributed to the research on the COVID-19 pandemic. Developing reliable, internationally comparable data is crucial for determining the effectiveness of the various strategies used to address the challenges posed by the pandemic. To achieve this ambitious goal, the HMD project established a new international data resource: the Short-Term Mortality Fluctuations (STMF) data series. This resource remains highly relevant today as an important tool for monitoring future health threats. It is regularly updated and provides estimates of excess mortality that capture the impact of other public health threats, including those caused by climate change (e.g., heat waves or cold temperatures).

The STMF@HMD builds on our work developing new methods for analyzing excess mortality. This work is carried out within the framework of a project based on the HMD experience, which is devoted to reconstructing mortality trends and human losses during crises such as epidemics, wars, and other disasters. High-frequency demographic data are essential for monitoring excess mortality from public health threats, including those caused by climate change (e.g., heat waves or cold temperatures).

Our research in this area focuses on mortality and health, and particularly the factors influencing diverging mortality trends at the national and subnational levels. Persistent longevity and mortality disparities between and within countries are significant obstacles to achieving sustainable longevity and improvements in mortality.

In the second half of the 20th century, there were two major divergences from the general trend of rising life expectancy. First, the well-documented East-West mortality divide in Europe has been attributed to long-term stagnation in mortality in former communist countries. The second case refers to the mortality crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa. Over the past two decades, unfavorable trends have also emerged in some low-mortality countries, including in the USA and the UK. Despite their many advantages (e.g., high health care spending or strong social welfare policies), progress in some high-income countries appears insufficient. Germany, for example, has some of the highest health care expenditures and a modern, equitable health care system, yet has been a long-term laggard in life expectancy among Western countries. These findings highlight the need for more in-depth comparative studies.

Our special focus is mortality at old ages in low-mortality countries. Mortality reductions at the most advanced ages will be the key driver of sustainable longevity improvements in the future.

While the majority of the global population live in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), reliable population-level mortality estimates are not available for many of them. Rising deaths due to noncommunicable chronic diseases and violence pose new challenges for efforts to achieve sustainable health progress in LMICs. Therefore, we extrapolate our research on these countries.

Projects of this Research Area