Demographic Data

At a Glance Projects Publications Team


Mortality Disparities at Subnational Level

Conducted by Dmitri A. Jdanov; Domantas Jasilionis, László Németh, Vladimir M. Shkolnikov; in Collaboration with Pekka Martikainen (MPIDR), Magali Barbieri (University of California, Berkeley, USA and French National Institute for Demographic Studies, Paris, France), Vladimir Canudas Romo, Sergey Timonin (both: Australian National University, Canberra, Australia), Lajos Bálint (Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, Budapest, Hungary), Alda Azevedo (University of Lisbon, Portugal), Filipe Ribeiro (University of Évora, Portugal), France Meslé, Jacques Vallin (both: French National Institute for Demographic Studies, Paris, France), Sebastian Klüsener, Pavel Grigoriev (both: Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany), Henrik Brønnum-Hansen (University of Copenhagen, Denmark), Daumantas Stumbrys (Vytautas Magnus University, Kaunas, Lithuania)

Detailed Description

Persisting longevity and mortality disparities between and within countries are considered as key challenge for longevity sustainability and mortality improvements. Numerous studies highlighted a close relationship between higher mortality rates at the national level and pronounced disparities at the subnational level. Prior studies confirmed that higher national life expectancy masks substantial mortality inequalities across population groups and administrative units.

The vast majority of current relevant studies focuses on mortality disparities by socioeconomic status. They show that it is the most vulnerable population groups who are affected by mortality, and they assess changes in the magnitude of inequality. This project additionally focuses on the mortality of advantaged groups, i.e., vanguard groups. These show the lowest mortality and include highly educated people and those residing in the regions with highest longevity. Longevity in vanguard groups represents the highest levels of survival possible under the present macroscopic conditions. These levels are realistic horizons for entire populations and can be used as predictors of future mortality.

A primary task of the project is to generate unique coherent datasets on subnational mortality for several developed countries. To this end, we rely on the prior experience gained from building the Human Mortality Database (HMD) extensions; these include life table estimates at the subnational (i.e., regional) level. We will address several methodological challenges, such as estimating robust life tables for small population groups and regions. We do so by extending the existing methodological foundations of the HMD to more advanced methods, such as Bayesian modeling.

Research Keywords:

Aging, Mortality and Longevity, Data and Surveys

Region keywords:

Australia, Canada, Europe, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Portugal, USA


Brønnum-Hansen, H.; Németh, L.; Jasilionis, D.; Foverskov, E.:
Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, 1–9. (2023)
Manthey, J.; Jasilionis, D.; Jiang, H.; Meščeriakova-Veliulienė, O.; Petkevičienė, J.; Radišauskas, R.; Štelemėkas, M.; Rehm, J.:
BMC Medicine 21:22, 1–10. (2023)    
Stickley, A.; Baburin, A.; Jasilionis, D.; Krumins, J.; Martikainen, P.; Kondo, N.; Shin, J. I.; Oh, H.; Waldman, K.; Leinsalu, M.:
European Journal of Public Health, 1–6. (2023)    
Timonin, S. A.; Jasilionis, D.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.:
Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 74:2, 144–150. (2020)    
Papanova, E. K.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.; Timonin, S. A.:
Advances in Gerontology 8:2, 86–95. (2018)
Timonin, S. A.; Danilova, I. A.; Andreev, E. M.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:
European Journal of Population 33:5, 733–763. (2017)    
The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock is one of the leading demographic research centers in the world. It's part of the Max Planck Society, the internationally renowned German research society.