Laboratory
Fertility and Well-Being
At a Glance
Projects
Publications
Team
Project
Shifts in the Fertility–Development Nexus at the Macro and Micro Level
Philipp Dierker, Jessica Nisén (MPIDR / University of Helsinki, Finland), Aiva Jasilioniene, Daniel Ciganda, Andres Castro, Nicolas Todd, Mikko Myrskylä, Natalie Nitsche; in Collaboration with multiple researchers The EAPS Working Group on Register-Based Fertility Research (European Association for Population Studies, The Hague, World), Ryohei Mogi (University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark), Peter Fallesen (Rockwool Foundation Berlin, Institute for the Economy and the Future of Work, Germany)
Detailed Description
Many major fertility theories of the 20th century hold that improvements in human development in modern societies are likely to lead to fertility decline. However, new theoretical frameworks suggest that fertility may increase again at high levels of development, particularly among highly educated women. At the same time, empirical evidence shows substantial shifts in the macro- and micro-level links between development and fertility in highly developed contexts.
At the macro level, we examine the relationship between development and fertility across countries and subnational regions and find indications that the relationship may become positive at high levels of development. We also investigate the broader economic implications of sustained low fertility. Using microsimulation models for Finland, we show that targeted investments in human capital can offset the negative effects of population aging and low fertility on pension burdens and economic sustainability.
At the micro level, we examine how the relationship between socioeconomic position and childbearing has evolved in recent decades. Using Norwegian register data, we show that recent fertility declines are not primarily driven by educational expansion but by declining fertility across educational groups, particularly among the lower educated. We further find that socioeconomic resources increasingly promote childbearing for both women and men. In complementary research in the United Kingdom, we show that partnership expectations are socially stratified by parental background and adolescent socialization, highlighting the intergenerational dimension of changing linkages between fertility and development.
Publications
Beck, K. C.; Hellstrand, J.; Myrskylä, M.:
Demography, 1–27. (2026)
Jalovaara, M.; Nisén, J.; Lammi-Taskula, J.:
In: Beyond the Nordic welfare state: extending social investments with interventions, 121–141. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing. (2026)
Li, Y.; Carlsson, E.; Nisén, J.:
INVEST working papers 134.2025, Turku. (2025)
Myrskylä, M.; Hellstrand, J.; Lappo, S.; Lorenti, A.; Nisén, J.; Rao, Z.; Tikanmäki, H.:
Demography 62:2, 489–514. (2025)
Nisén, J.; Erlandsson, A.; Jalovaara, M.:
Journal of Family and Economic Issues 46:3, 685–707. (2025)
Wood, J.; Marynissen, L.; Nisén, J.; Fallesen, P.; Neels, K.; Trimarchi, A.; Dommermuth, L.; Van Gaalen, R.; Kolk, M.; Martikainen, P.:
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 23:2025, 489–514. (2025)
Mogi, R.; Lazzari, E.; Nisén, J.; Canudas Romo, V.:
Population Studies 77:1, 1–14. (2023)
Abufhele, A.; Pesando, L. M.; Castro Torres, A. F.:
Research in Social Stratification and Mobility 82:100736, 1–14. (2022)
Castro Torres, A. F.:
Current Sociology, 1–30. (2022)
Castro Torres, A. F.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2022-002. (2022)
Castro Torres, A. F.; Batyra, E.; Myrskylä, M.:
Population and Development Review 48:1, 189–215. (2022)
Castro Torres, A. F.; Gutierrez Vazquez, E. Y.:
International Migration Review 56:4, 1107–1140. (2022)
Castro Torres, A. F.; Gutierrez Vazquez, E. Y.; Bernardes, T.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2022-003. (2022)
Castro Torres, A. F.; Parrado, E. A.:
Demographic Research 46:2, 37–64. (2022)
Esteve, A.; Castro-Martin, T.; Castro Torres, A. F.:
Annual Review of Sociology 48, 485–505. (2022)
Hellstrand, J.; Nisén, J.; Myrskylä, M.:
European Journal of Population 38:2, 191–221. (2022)
Liu, C.; Castro Torres, A. F.; Batyra, E.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2022-004. (2022)
Castro Torres, A. F.; Batyra, E.; Myrskylä, M.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2021-009. (2021)
Hellstrand, J.; Nisén, J.; Myrskylä, M.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2021-008. (2021)
Mogi, R.; Nisén, J.; Canudas-Romo, V.:
Demography 58:1, 321–344. (2021)
Nisén, J.; Klüsener, S.; Dahlberg, J.; Dommermuth, L.; Jasilioniene, A.; Kreyenfeld, M.; Lappegård, T.; Li, P.; Martikainen, P.; Neels, K.; Riederer, B.; te Riele, S.; Szabó, L.; Trimarchi, A.; Viciana, F.; Myrskylä, M.; Wilson, B.:
European Journal of Population 37:1, 263–295. (2021)
Todd, N.; Lerch, M.:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118:29, 1–6. (2021)
Wood, J.; Marynissen, L.; Nisén, J.; Fallesen, P.; Neels, K.; Trimarchi, A.; Dommermuth, L.; Van Gaalen, R.; Kolk, M.; Martikainen, P.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2021-021. (2021)
Castro Torres, A. F.; Gutierrez Vazquez, E. Y.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2020-027. (2020)
Hellstrand, J.; Nisén, J.; Myrskylä, M.:
Population Studies 74:3, 315–329. (2020)
Nisén, J.; Hellstrand, J.; Martikainen, P.; Myrskylä, M.:
Yhteiskuntapolitiikka 85:4, 358–369. (2020)
Nitsche, N.; Hayford, S.:
Demography 57:6, 1975–2001. (2020)
Wood, J.; Klüsener, S.; Neels, K.; Myrskylä, M.:
Population, Space and Place 26:8, e2342–e2342. (2020)
Riffe, T.; Barclay, K. J.; Klüsener, S.; Bohk-Ewald, C.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2019-002. (2019)