Laboratory
Fertility and Well-Being
At a Glance
Projects
Publications
Team
Project
Shifts in the Fertility–Development Nexus at the Macro and Micro Level
Jessica Nisén (MPIDR / University of Helsinki, Finland), Aiva Jasilioniene, Daniel Ciganda, Andres Castro, Nicolas Todd, Mikko Myrskylä, Natalie Nitsche; in Collaboration with multiple researchers The EAPS Working Group on Register-Based Fertility Research (European Association for Population Studies, The Hague, World), Ryohei Mogi (University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark), Peter Fallesen (Rockwool Foundation Berlin, Institute for the Economy and the Future of Work, Germany)
Detailed Description
Many major fertility theories of the 20th century hold that improvements in human development in modern societies are likely to lead to fertility decrease. However, new theoretical frameworks that have recently been proposed suggest that fertility may increase again at high levels of development, particularly among highly educated women. At the same time, growing empirical evidence shows substantial shifts in the macro- and micro-level links between human development and fertility in some highly developed parts of the world.
At the macro level, our studies based on aggregate-level data suggest that we may be witnessing the emergence of a positive relationship between development and fertility across countries as well as subnational regions within countries at high levels of development. At the micro level, too, growing evidence suggests that the long-standing negative relationship between women’s socioeconomic position and childbearing is subject to considerable shifts. Our research on Europe has shown that this leads to the weakening of the relationship between human development and fertility at both the individual and the aggregate levels. But to assess the likelihood of a positive relationship to emerge between the two phenomena and to assess the sustainability of such an outcome, we need to gain a deeper understanding of the micro-level dynamics and contextual factors that are driving these trends.
This project addresses these issues by analyzing rich register and register-like data and by developing novel methods. At the individual level, we focus on trends by socioeconomic status among females, males, or couples; and we look at the relationship of income inequality with fertility patterning over the course of the demographic transition. At the contextual level, we focus on fertility trends by levels of economic development, costs of living, and opportunities to reconcile family and career goals. We analyze the developments of both cohort and period fertility and assess how recent changes in period fertility trends will translate into cohort fertility patterns.
A subproject has focused on the recent changes in period fertility rates in the Nordic countries, particularly Finland. Based on Nordic register data, the study has shown that the Nordic countries have been subject to unexpected fertility declines since 2010; these have been the strongest in Finland, Iceland, and Norway. As part of this subproject, we set up a European working group of researchers called EAPS Working Group Register-Based Fertility Research. It brings together scientists who are collaborating to exploit individual-level and subnational variance in register and register-like data in order to improve our understanding of the recent shifts in the fertility–development nexus.
Another subproject investigated the implications of socioeconomic developments in fertility transition in low- to middle-income countries. One study revisited a classic Bongaarts–Potter function and has demonstrated that, in the absence of contraception, the effects of breastfeeding on postpartum amenorrhea and consequently on fertility depend on the level of socioeconomic development. Another study addressed the poorly documented relationship between socioeconomic inequality and fertility. Covering a period from 1986 to 2018, the study has documented a positive country-level association between income inequality and the dispersion of first-birth schedules.
Publications
Mogi, R.; Lazzari, E.; Nisén, J.; Canudas Romo, V.:
Population Studies 77:1, 1–14. (2023)
Abufhele, A.; Pesando, L. M.; Castro Torres, A. F.:
Research in Social Stratification and Mobility 82:100736, 1–14. (2022)
Castro Torres, A. F.:
Current Sociology, 1–30. (2022)
Castro Torres, A. F.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2022-002. (2022)
Castro Torres, A. F.; Batyra, E.; Myrskylä, M.:
Population and Development Review 48:1, 189–215. (2022)
Castro Torres, A. F.; Gutierrez Vazquez, E. Y.:
International Migration Review 56:4, 1107–1140. (2022)
Castro Torres, A. F.; Gutierrez Vazquez, E. Y.; Bernardes, T.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2022-003. (2022)
Castro Torres, A. F.; Parrado, E. A.:
Demographic Research 46:2, 37–64. (2022)
Esteve, A.; Castro-Martin, T.; Castro Torres, A. F.:
Annual Review of Sociology 48, 485–505. (2022)
Hellstrand, J.; Nisén, J.; Myrskylä, M.:
European Journal of Population 38:2, 191–221. (2022)
Liu, C.; Castro Torres, A. F.; Batyra, E.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2022-004. (2022)
Castro Torres, A. F.; Batyra, E.; Myrskylä, M.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2021-009. (2021)
Hellstrand, J.; Nisén, J.; Myrskylä, M.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2021-008. (2021)
Mogi, R.; Nisén, J.; Canudas-Romo, V.:
Demography 58:1, 321–344. (2021)
Nisén, J.; Klüsener, S.; Dahlberg, J.; Dommermuth, L.; Jasilioniene, A.; Kreyenfeld, M.; Lappegård, T.; Li, P.; Martikainen, P.; Neels, K.; Riederer, B.; te Riele, S.; Szabó, L.; Trimarchi, A.; Viciana, F.; Myrskylä, M.; Wilson, B.:
European Journal of Population 37:1, 263–295. (2021)
Todd, N.; Lerch, M.:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118:29, 1–6. (2021)
Wood, J.; Marynissen, L.; Nisén, J.; Fallesen, P.; Neels, K.; Trimarchi, A.; Dommermuth, L.; Van Gaalen, R.; Kolk, M.; Martikainen, P.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2021-021. (2021)
Castro Torres, A. F.; Gutierrez Vazquez, E. Y.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2020-027. (2020)
Hellstrand, J.; Nisén, J.; Myrskylä, M.:
Population Studies 74:3, 315–329. (2020)
Nisén, J.; Hellstrand, J.; Martikainen, P.; Myrskylä, M.:
Yhteiskuntapolitiikka 85:4, 358–369. (2020)
Nitsche, N.; Hayford, S.:
Demography 57:6, 1975–2001. (2020)
Wood, J.; Klüsener, S.; Neels, K.; Myrskylä, M.:
Population, Space and Place 26:8, e2342–e2342. (2020)
Riffe, T.; Barclay, K. J.; Klüsener, S.; Bohk-Ewald, C.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2019-002. (2019)