Laboratory

Fertility and Well-Being

At a Glance Projects Publications Team

Project

Leveraging Micro-Level Computational Models to Advance Fertility Forecasting

Conducted by Daniel Ciganda; Julio César Cesano González; in Collaboration with Mikko Myrskylä, Julia Hellstrand (both: MPIDR)

We advance demographic forecasting, and fertility forecasting in particular, by providing a theoretically and statistically sound framework for producing explanatory forecasts. This framework will be easy to use, adapt, and to extend by other researchers and institutions in charge of informing the design of public policies.  Detailed Description

Publications

Ciganda, D.; Hellstrand, J.; Myrskylä, M.:

Future fertility scenarios in Finland: a computational forecasting approach

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2023-010. (2023)    

Ciganda, D.; Todd, N.:

Demographic models of the reproductive process: past, interlude, and future

Population Studies 76:3, 495–513. (2022)    

Ciganda, D.; Lorenti, A.; Dommermuth, L.:

Changes in the educational gradient of fertility not driven by changes in preferences

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2021-016. (2021)    

De-Armas, G.; Rodríguez-Collazo, S.; Álvarez-Vaz, R.; Carrasco, H.; Ciganda, D.:

Extensiones al modelo de segregación de Schelling: primera parte

IESTA Working Papers 2/20, Montevideo. (2020)