Fertility and Well-Being

At a Glance Projects Publications Team


Leveraging Micro-Level Computational Models to Advance Fertility Forecasting

Conducted by Daniel Ciganda; Julio César Cesano González; in Collaboration with Mikko Myrskylä, Julia Hellstrand (both: MPIDR)

We advance demographic forecasting, and fertility forecasting in particular, by providing a theoretically and statistically sound framework for producing explanatory forecasts. This framework will be easy to use, adapt, and to extend by other researchers and institutions in charge of informing the design of public policies.  Detailed Description

Research Keywords:

Fertility Development, Projections and Forecasting


Ciganda, D.; Hellstrand, J.; Myrskylä, M.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2023-010. (2023)    
Ciganda, D.; Todd, N.:
Population Studies 76:3, 495–513. (2022)    
Ciganda, D.; Lorenti, A.; Dommermuth, L.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2021-016. (2021)    
De-Armas, G.; Rodríguez-Collazo, S.; Álvarez-Vaz, R.; Carrasco, H.; Ciganda, D.:
IESTA Working Papers 2/20, Montevideo. (2020)    
The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock is one of the leading demographic research centers in the world. It's part of the Max Planck Society, the internationally renowned German research society.